Abstract for: Recruitment, incarceration and rehabilitation: modelling cartel dynamics.

Cartels in Latin America have killed thousands of people and displaced millions. Those groups manage to prevail and grow despite persistent challenges from the state and rival groups. Thus, traditional ways to reduce and control cartel violence have been largely unsuccessful in the region, partly because the fight against cartels is poorly understood. By modelling cartel size in Mexico using a system of coupled differential equations, it is possible to quantify the many factors that enable cartel size to increase and the reasons behind its decline. Using estimates for casualties and incarceration in the country, we estimate the combined size and recruiting power. Despite suffering vast human losses due to incarceration and fighting against other cartels, cartels prevail due to their recruiting power. Combined, cartels in Mexico are among the top employers and recruiters in the country. Additionally, without reducing their recruiting power, reducing the burden of cartels is much more challenging. Other elements, such as social rehabilitation also play a crucial role. Without fighting against cartel recruitment, reducing their power is nearly impossible. But other elements, such as social rehabilitation, the efficiency of social programs, and the effectiveness of security measures to fight cartels, are key to reducing violence in the region. Without fighting against cartel recruitment, reducing their power is nearly impossible. But other elements, such as social rehabilitation, the efficiency of social programs, and the effectiveness of security measures to fight cartels, are key to reducing violence in the region.