Abstract for: Modeling dengue and Aedes habitat: Exploring urban green infrastructure and insecticide dynamics in a work-in-progress system dynamics model

Dengue is a rapidly expanding mosquito-borne disease shaped by interactions among climate, urbanization, and vector ecology. Current control strategies, particularly insecticide spraying, face limitations including declining effectiveness and potential unintended consequences. Less is understood about how upstream environmental interventions, such as urban green infrastructure (UGI), may influence Aedes habitat and dengue transmission dynamics. This work-in-progress develops a system dynamics model to explore relationships among dengue burden, Aedes mosquito populations, habitat availability, and two city-scale interventions: insecticide spraying and UGI. Grounded in a case study of Iquitos, Peru, the model integrates causal loop and stock-flow structures to represent feedback processes, seasonality, and intervention delays, supporting comparative policy experiments over a ten-year simulation horizon. Preliminary simulations suggest distinct temporal dynamics across interventions. Insecticide spraying demonstrates short-term reductions in Aedes populations but declining effectiveness over time due to resistance. UGI shows delayed but potentially sustained reductions in habitat and vector populations. Combined interventions appear to produce synergistic effects, with model behavior indicating the possibility of crossing thresholds beyond which Aedes proliferation and dengue transmission are significantly reduced. Findings highlight the importance of considering upstream environmental interventions alongside conventional control strategies. As a work in progress, the model remains exploratory and requires further calibration, validation, and participatory refinement. The study invites feedback on model structure, assumptions, and representation of ecosystem services, contributing to broader discussions on integrating urban planning and public health through system dynamics approaches. to suggest concise abstract text; edited for accuracy and appropriateness