Abstract for: The Fragmentation of National Highway Passenger Routes and Misallocation of Capacity A Casual Loop Analysis of Public Inter-Urban Bus Routes

This study investigates the structural crisis facing Taiwan’s intercity bus industry, specifically focusing on Public Inter-Urban Bus Routes. By combining national trasportation open data analysis with system dynamics, the research highlights how excessive route fragmentation and urban congestion create a "vicious cycle" of capacity misallocation. It explores how current policies and labor shortages trap operators in a pattern of declining service levels and revenue. This study employs a multi-method approach, beginning with literature analysis to identify key variables like driver shortages and policy impacts. Researchers developed a Python-based open data science to quantitatively analyze station density and capacity waste via government open data. Additionly, in-depth interviews with frontline drivers and system dynamics modeling were used to clarify the causal structures behind operational decline crisis. Data analysis reveals extreme route fragmentation, with nearly half of stops on major routes spaced at ineffective, bus-like distances. Driver interviews confirm that urban congestion and monthly passenger discount (the TPASS) driven short-distance travel double peak-hour travel times, creating "ineffective capacity". System dynamics modeling illustrates a vicious cycle where these delays compress driver rest periods, leading to fatigue, service cancellations, and accelerated passenger loss. The discussion reveals a "poisoned chalice" where short-term fixes—like maintaining dense urban stops to attract TPASS users—trigger long-term systemic failure. This "Fixes that Fail" archetype shows that while high stop density may briefly sustain passenger numbers, it ultimately causes driver fatigue, vehicle wear, and scheduling collapses. Consequently, the system hits a physical growth ceiling imposed by urban congestion and labor shortages.