Abstract for: A System Dynamics Model of Augmented-Reality-Based Climate Service Co-Production

Information produced by climate science frequently fails to reach or be used by those who need it most. The process of co-production with users can help close this usability gap. Yet, no dynamic model exists that captures how the social, environmental, knowledge, political and technological dimensions interact over time during the process of co-production. Nor, how the choice of delivery medium, such as augmented reality can shape these dynamics. We develop a system dynamics model that represents AR-based climate service co-development as an integrated socio-environmental system, organized around five capital stocks (natural, human, social, political, technological). The model design is informed by two case studies in co-production in different contexts. The core dynamics of the system are captured in four reinforcing and two balancing loops. The model is in a fully functional state and demonstrates plausible behaviour. Preliminary analysis show that social capital is an important mediating variable: a low starting social capital delays or even prevents adoption across all reinforcing loops. Additionally, the model shows structural differences due to the use of AR as the delivery medium as compared to conventional information products. Scenario and literature cross-validation work is still ongoing. This study contributes the first SD model of climate service co-production and demonstrates that delivery medium choice has structural (and not merely parametric) effect on system behaviour. We are seeking feedback on the model structure and scenario design that would ebhance the model practical relevance.