Abstract for: Evaluating Crop Planning Decisions in Family Farming Systems under Resource Constraints: A Dynamic Modeling Approach

Agricultural systems face increasing pressure to improve productivity while ensuring sustainable resource use, particularly in family farming contexts in developing countries. Decision-making in these systems is complex due to the interaction of environmental, economic, and social factors, which generate trade-offs between profitability, resource conservation, and labor dynamics. This study develops a system dynamics model to evaluate crop allocation and rotation strategies in a Colombian municipality. The model integrates environmental, productive, economic, and social variables through a stock-and-flow structure. Five production scenarios, derived from a multi-objective crop planning model, were simulated over a 96-month horizon using Vensim DSS. Simulation results reveal significant trade-offs between economic performance, environmental sustainability, and employment. Profit-oriented scenarios increase soil degradation and total water footprint, particularly the grey component. In contrast, more conservative strategies reduce environmental impacts but generate lower economic returns. Crops such as potato and onion drive profitability and labor demand, while permanent crops provide greater stability. These findings highlight the usefulness of system dynamics for capturing feedback mechanisms and supporting decision-making in complex agricultural systems. The model enables the evaluation of long-term impacts of production strategies, offering a valuable tool for balancing productivity and sustainability in family farming systems, particularly in developing country contexts such as Colombia.