Abstract for: When Abundance Turns to Scarcity: Systemic Vulnerability and Water Governance in the Glacier–Fed Aksu–Tarim Basin, NW China

The Tarim River Basin in north-west China is a glacier-fed system in an extremely arid environment, where water availability constrains ecological sustainability and socio-economic development. A projected “rise–fall” trajectory of glacier runoff suggests that short-term water abundance may conceal long-term scarcity. Combined with rapid agricultural expansion and seasonal supply–demand mismatches, these dynamics create a highly vulnerable water system that requires adaptive and forward-looking management strategies. This research project applies system dynamics modelling (SDM) to analyse the feedback between water supply, human water use, and ecological water demand. SDM allows integrated assessment that captures climate-driven hydrological change with water governance policies, and to further evaluate governance pitfalls in addressing water inequality. Results show that temporary water abundance encourages continued farmland expansion regardless of climate scenario. Also, ecosystem regeneration is largely suppressed by the combined dominance of the agricultural expansion and reservoir buffer loops. When management policies are applied to in the headwaters of Tarim, the downstream system remained locked into business-as-usual expansion pathways, limiting the transfer of upstream gains into ecological improvements. This research suggests that there is no sustainability in continued “land reclamation ”. Land retirement should be the primary basin-wide adaptation strategy. While irrigation efficiency can temporarily alleviate water scarcity, it does not address the underlying expansion dynamics that drive long-term vulnerability. Aggregate data series to produce the provisional reference mode in the attachment.