Abstract for: Population Aging and the Role of Social Values in Fertility Dynamics

Population aging is a demographic trend that is detected in multiple countries and is affected by falling fertility rates and rising life expectancies. Although demographers often use statistical methods to predict population trends, the results are often underestimated, leading to doubts about the methods used. This paper proposes the addition of a value orientation structure within a system dynamics model that can show how the split between materialistic and postmaterialistic ideology endogenously impacts total fertility rate change. Analyzing the behavior of the model structure shows that the prevailing ideology in a population is highly impactful when estimating childbearing support policy effectiveness. The results are in line with the theory of the second demographic transition. Discussions conclude that value orientation inclusion in demographic modelling is an important consideration for future researchers. Including ideologic variables within fertility formation can expand the available policy space for governments, although care must be taken not to overstep on the personal freedoms of individuals.