Abstract

Abstract for: Feedback Dynamics of the Energy Transition: A System Dynamics Analysis of Renewable Energy Adoption

Introduction Energy systems must meet rising demand while rapidly reducing emissions, yet fossil-fuel dependence, infrastructure lock-in, and the competing goals of affordability, security, and sustainability continue to slow change. Explaining why renewable energy adoption accelerates in some settings but remains constrained in others is therefore a central challenge for energy-transition research and policy.
Approach This paper applies a qualitative system dynamics approach to develop a literature-based causal loop diagram of the global energy transition. The framework maps reinforcing and balancing feedbacks, key delays, and behavioral influences affecting renewable adoption, fossil-fuel persistence, policy response, infrastructure expansion, affordability, and energy security.
Results The analysis identifies interacting reinforcing and balancing loops that shape renewable energy adoption. The framework also reveals leverage points where policy can strengthen virtuous cycles and weaken self-reinforcing barriers.Cross-country cases further show that policy credibility strongly shapes transition outcomes.
Discussion The findings show that the energy transition is not a linear fuel substitution process but a path-dependent systemic transformation. Effective intervention therefore requires coherent and durable policies that address technology, infrastructure, behavior, affordability, and energy security together. A feedback-based perspective can support more targeted transition strategies and guide future quantitative system dynamics modelling.

Introduction	Energy systems must meet rising demand while rapidly reducing emissions, yet fossil-fuel dependence, infrastructure lock-in, and the competing goals of affordability, security, and sustainability continue to slow change. Explaining why renewable energy adoption accelerates in some settings but remains constrained in others is therefore a central challenge for energy-transition research and policy.
Approach	This paper applies a qualitative system dynamics approach to develop a literature-based causal loop diagram of the global energy transition. The framework maps reinforcing and balancing feedbacks, key delays, and behavioral influences affecting renewable adoption, fossil-fuel persistence, policy response, infrastructure expansion, affordability, and energy security.
Results	The analysis identifies interacting reinforcing and balancing loops that shape renewable energy adoption. The framework also reveals leverage points where policy can strengthen virtuous cycles and weaken self-reinforcing barriers.Cross-country cases further show that policy credibility strongly shapes transition outcomes.
Discussion	The findings show that the energy transition is not a linear fuel substitution process but a path-dependent systemic transformation. Effective intervention therefore requires coherent and durable policies that address technology, infrastructure, behavior, affordability, and energy security together. A feedback-based perspective can support more targeted transition strategies and guide future quantitative system dynamics modelling.