Abstract for: The Persistence of Gendered Mental Health Disparities in Scotland

The prevalence of poor mental health among working-age adults in Scotland has risen in the last decade, with women consistently reporting higher rates than men despite decades of measurable progress in gender equality. This paper investigates the structural mechanisms sustaining this gender paradox by modelling the dynamic interaction between the labour market, gender norms, and population mental health. A causal loop diagram, built from a feedback-driven literature synthesis and refined through disconfirmatory interviews with ten interdisciplinary experts, was translated into a system dynamics simulation grounded in complex realism and calibrated to Scotland (1992–2019). Loop-dominance analysis (Loops That Matter), structural decomposition and counterfactual scenarios examined historical behaviour; optimisation across macroeconomic futures identified structural levers. Insecure work drove the rise in poor mental health more than the 2008 recession. Women's higher rates stem primarily from the gender pay gap burden and unpaid work that channel women into poor mental health and their subsequent slower recovery. Improving childcare and pay equity reduces overall prevalence and the gender gap. However, while egalitarian norms benefit women, they may worsen men's mental health in a poor labour market. By endogenising the interaction between the labour market, gender norms and population mental health in a single feedback model, the work reframes the gender paradox as a property of system structure rather than individual risk. It shows that closing the gender gap alongside universal improvement requires synchronised intervention on both equality and job quality. Drafting conference submission from larger PhD thesis (incomplete)