Abstract for: Toward a Structural Understanding of Technology Transfer in the Construction Sector in Colombia

This paper addresses the persistent contraction and low productivity in Colombia's construction sector, despite its access to global technologies (e.g., BIM, Industry 4.0). Addressing technology transfer (TT) failures through System Dynamics (SD) is complex due to the reliance on soft variables like leadership and intercultural communication, which are difficult to quantify. To overcome the subjective bias often found in traditional SD conceptualization, this study introduces a novel methodological framework integrating the CRISP-DM data science standard with structural prospective analysis. This systematic approach allows for the rigorous elicitation, mapping, and operationalization of both soft and hard variables within the socio-technical ecosystem The application of this framework resulted in a robust dynamic hypothesis and a fully validated Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) mapped in Stella Architect. The model reveals that without adequate absorptive capacity and human capital, initial technological investments trigger a vicious cycle, trapping the sector in a state of high informality and isolation These findings demonstrate that technology transfer requires more than just acquiring tools; it demands structural improvements in the ecosystem's absorptive capacity. By breaking the identified vicious cycles, policymakers and industry leaders can activate a core transfer engine, shifting the system toward a virtuous cycle of sustained productivity and collaborative innovation. I used Gemini AI tool to polish the English language