Abstract for: Accelerating Electric Vehicle Adoption in Nigeria

Global greenhouse gas emissions from transport remain a major concern, driven largely by fossil-fuel-based passenger vehicles. While electric vehicles (EVs) offer a viable alternative, adoption in developing countries such as Nigeria is constrained by affordability, infrastructure, and energy limitations. Despite ambitious national policies, significant gaps persist. This study applies a sociotechnical system dynamics approach to evaluate policy effectiveness and identify strategies to accelerate EV adoption in Nigeria’s transport sector. This study integrates system dynamics (SD) and discrete choice modelling (DCM) to analyse EV adoption. SD captures feedback structures and dynamic interactions shaping system behaviour through stages including problem formulation, simulation, validation, and policy analysis. DCM models consumer decision-making by estimating utility-based choices among alternatives. Combined, the framework links micro-level preferences with macro-level dynamics, enabling a comprehensive assessment of how behavioural, economic, and policy factors jointly influence technology adoption. The results reveal that EV adoption in Nigeria is highly sensitive to policy design, timing, and scale. Under BAU, adoption remains minimal. Financial incentives significantly accelerate uptake, especially when sustained or combined with subsidies. Infrastructure provision shows nonlinear effects with threshold dynamics, while long-term marketing enhances adoption through network effects. A combined policy mix produces a clear tipping point, enabling EV dominance and major shifts in energy demand, electricity systems, and emissions trajectories. Nigeria’s transport sector is dominated by fossil-fuel vehicles, making it a major emissions source and key target for decarbonisation. Results show EV adoption depends strongly on sustained policies: subsidies and long-term marketing are more effective than taxes alone, while infrastructure exhibits threshold effects. A combined policy mix yields the strongest outcomes. EV diffusion significantly reshapes energy demand, requiring expanded electricity capacity and renewables. Current policies remain insufficient, highlighting the need for coordinated, long-term strategies. used for writing improvement