Abstract for: System Dynamics Modeling Applied to Combating Match-Fixing and Money Laundering in the Brazilian Sports Betting Market

The Brazilian sports betting market's rapid, unregulated expansion created systemic risks for money laundering and match-fixing. Traditional static analysis fails to capture these complex, nonlinear illicit activities. This research employs System Dynamics to model the sector’s endogenous feedback loops and adaptive criminal behaviors. By using computer simulation instead of discrete historical data, the study enables pre-testing public policies to effectively combat financial crimes and stabilize the betting ecosystem. The study employs a System Dynamics framework to model the Brazilian betting market as a complex, non-linear system. Utilizing Vensim, it maps feedback loops between two primary stocks: Sports Integrity and Illicit Capital. The methodology integrates legal structures (Laws 14.597/2023 and 14.790/2023) with Sterman’s principles of endogenous causality. This allows for simulating "virtual laboratories" to test how regulatory, technological, and punitive interventions—such as advanced KYC and SIGAP monitoring—disrupt criminal reinforcing cycles. WORK IN PROGRESS. INTERMEDIATE RESULTS: Simulations demonstrate that isolated policies are insufficient against adaptive criminal networks. While "Strengthened Regulation" (Scenario 2) increases risk perception, it fails to deplete existing criminal assets. The "Integrated Anti-Corruption Strategy" (Scenario 3) proves most effective, using financial intelligence and asset recovery to trigger a "Financial Asphyxiation" loop. This mechanism abruptly increases the cost of crime, neutralizes profitability, and significantly restores the Stock of Sports Integrity by neutralizing fraud and laundering flows. The discussion highlights that sports corruption is an endogenous outcome of incentive structures, not merely isolated "bad apples." The multiplicity of actors creates governance challenges, where delays in institutional communication allow criminal loops to strengthen. Results suggest that institutional health depends on the symbiosis of formal regulation, technological monitoring, and asset seizure. Transitioning to a proactive, systemic oversight model is essential to counter the high digital agility and transnational nature of modern betting fraud. Review text, translate into English, and assist in the comparison between divergent guidelines in the legislation.