Abstract for: Conceptualizing Adoption Instability from a System Dynamics Perspective

Adoption instability for children adopted from foster care is a complex and systemic challenge that places heavy emotional and financial burdens on families and child welfare systems in the United States. While existing conceptual frameworks identify various influential factors, they often focus on linear associations and individual- or family- level variables, failing to capture the reciprocal impacts and system-wide behaviors that drive long-term instability outcomes. This paper proposes a new conceptual model that integrates empirical evidence and theoretical frameworks through a system dynamics (SD) approach. Utilizing Causal Loop Diagrams and Stock-and-Flow Diagrams, this new conceptual model maps the underlying pathways leading to adoption instability while accounting for system delays and the accumulation of adverse experiences. This SD conceptual model captures critical reinforcing loops, such as the reciprocal impact between child behavioral challenges and parental stress, and the cycle linking parent-child relationships, adoption commitment, and family functioning, which can amplify the risk of informal or formal instability. Conversely, the model identifies balancing loops in which adoption support and services, such as crisis responding services, are preventing efforts. By shifting from a linear to a feedback-oriented perspective, this research offers a comprehensive framework to identify systemic leverage points to better prevent disruption and promote stable, permanent adoptive homes. The new conceptual model may further inform theory and empirical development of the adoption research.