Abstract

Abstract for: Barriers to the Diffusion of PV Energy Generation as Strategy for Electrification in Colombia's Non-Interconnected Zones

Introduction Off-grid rural areas in Colombia face persistent energy poverty, with limited and unreliable electricity access largely dependent on diesel generation. Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have emerged as a viable alternative; however, their diffusion remains uneven. Understanding the distinct adoption dynamics between households without electricity access and those relying on diesel is critical ro ensuring sustained and equitable electrification.
Approach This study develops a System Dynamics model to analyze the diffusion of solar PV systems in Colombia's off-grid rural areas. The model distinguishes between two adoption mechanisms: first-time access among household without electricity and technology switching among diesel-dependent users. It captures installation dynamics (including financial and structural), word-of-mouth effects, and replacement decisions after system lifetime.
Results Under BAU conditions, the model reproduces an S-shaped PV diffusion curve for first-access users, reaching approximately 120,000 users by end of simulation. Diesel-to-PV switching remains substantially lower and declines after peaking. A 99% tariff subsidy experiment does not substantially alter the dominant diffusion pattern. Willingness to adopt emerges as the strongest driver across all foresight scenarios.
Discussion The findings highlight that PV electrification in the ZNI is a socio-technical challenge, not only a financial one. Installing systems does not guarantee sustained electricity access, maintenance, replacement, and user engagement are structurally critical. Subsidies improve affordability but do not remove binding operational constraints. Distinguishing first-access adoption from diesel-to-PV switching is essential, as both follow structurally different diffusion pathways with distinct policy implications.

Introduction	Off-grid rural areas in Colombia face persistent energy poverty, with limited and unreliable electricity access largely dependent on diesel generation. Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have emerged as a viable alternative; however, their diffusion remains uneven. Understanding the distinct adoption dynamics between households without electricity access and those relying on diesel is critical ro ensuring sustained and equitable electrification.
Approach	This study develops a System Dynamics model to analyze the diffusion of solar PV systems in Colombia's off-grid rural areas. The model distinguishes between two adoption mechanisms: first-time access among household without electricity and technology switching among diesel-dependent users. It captures installation dynamics (including financial and structural), word-of-mouth effects, and replacement decisions after system lifetime.
Results	Under BAU conditions, the model reproduces an S-shaped PV diffusion curve for first-access users, reaching approximately 120,000 users by end of simulation. Diesel-to-PV switching remains substantially lower and declines after peaking. A 99% tariff subsidy experiment does not substantially alter the dominant diffusion pattern. Willingness to adopt emerges as the strongest driver across all foresight scenarios.
Discussion	The findings highlight that PV electrification in the ZNI is a socio-technical challenge, not only a financial one. Installing systems does not guarantee sustained electricity access, maintenance, replacement, and user engagement are structurally critical. Subsidies improve affordability but do not remove binding operational constraints. Distinguishing first-access adoption from diesel-to-PV switching is essential, as both follow structurally different diffusion pathways with distinct policy implications.