Abstract for: Assessing Energy System Resilience amid Rising Electricity Demand and Decarbonization in a Changing Climate

The energy transition and climate change pose interacting risks to power grid resilience. Electrification increases demand, which must be met while also mitigating climate change by cutting use of fossil fuels. At the same time, physical risks threaten grid infrastructure. Successfully navigating these dynamics requires effective decision-making across many levels. We are developing an interactive model of the energy transition that will enable decision-makers to test resilience measures. With an initial focus on Massachusetts, the model integrates climate change and the energy transition. For example, we examine the effects of heat pump adoption and extreme temperatures on peak demand. We will also model damage from power outages caused by electricity shortfalls and extreme events, considering impacts on vulnerable populations. This interactive, accessible model will be a publicly available tool that enables community members and policymakers to better navigate transition pathways. We are developing the model with an eye to scaling to other cold-climate states and regions. This will allow decision-makers in these geographies to test innovative policies and technologies that can improve energy efficiency and grid resilience.