Abstract for: Assessing the trade-offs between agriculture and ecosystems services in conjunctive irrigation: A case study in the Konya Closed Basin, Türkiye

The Konya Closed Basin in central Türkiye is a semi-arid region of major agricultural importance and a key example of growing challenges related to water scarcity and governance. This study aims to improve understanding of the Basin’s complex water management dynamics and to identify integrated policy options for water resource management, agricultural production, and ecosystem conservation. This research employs a participatory system dynamics approach. Within the scope of this research, semi-structured interviews and participatory workshops were held with the key stakeholders in the study area. Between 2023 and 2026, two field visits and three participatory workshops were held. A dynamic simulation model was developed in parallel with fieldwork and participatory workshops. Model-based policy analysis revealed that water management challenges in the Basin are multidimensional and cannot be addressed through isolated solutions. Instead, they require integrated and coordinated strategies. The participatory modeling approach improved understanding of interactions among agricultural practices, climate, governance, and socio-economic factors, while enabling stakeholders to explore policy trade-offs to support informed, integrated, and inclusive water management strategies. This study demonstrates the value of participatory modeling within a water–food–ecosystem nexus framework. By incorporating stakeholders’ knowledge into model development, it improves representation of local processes and supports more informed water management decisions in a semi-arid basin.