Abstract for: Integration of system dynamics and discrete choice modelling – A case study based on district heating in Sweden

District heating (DH) is central to heating supply in many Swedish cities, but rising production costs, potential carbon capture integration, and competition from heat pumps (HP) have the potential to put pressure on the system. As DH networks rely on customer density to cover fixed costs, households switching to HP can reinforce price increases. Understanding these behavioural and economic feedbacks is essential for assessing long‑term system development. We integrate a discrete choice model of household heating technology decisions with a system dynamics (SD) representation of DH system evolution. A stated choice experiment with 500 Swedish households provides utility parameters for DH and HP alternatives. These behavioural responses are embedded in an SD model capturing price‑demand interactions from the household and DH network owner perspectives. Survey respondents showed a strong baseline preference for DH along with preferences for lower price and lower emission technologies. This strong baseline preference means DH demand and prices are stable even if there is a reinforcing structure that should lead to reductions in demand and increase in prices. Scenario tests—varying electricity prices, CO₂ footprints, and capital costs—shift DH–HP shares but do not trigger tipping behaviour. The integrated approach demonstrates clear value but also limitations. The strong baseline preference for DH constrains long‑term dynamics and may not reflect future shifts in technology attractiveness. Further sensitivity testing is needed to examine how changing preferences interact with structural feedbacks. Nonetheless, the work highlights how combining choice modelling and SD can be used together in assessing systems where user preference can influence system development. Refining text for clarity and brevity