Abstract for: Feedback Dynamics of Passenger Car Electrification in Switzerland: A System Dynamics Approach to Socio-Technical Drivers and Policy Pathways

Switzerland has committed to deep emissions reductions, yet transport remains its largest source of CO₂, dominated by passenger cars. Policies such as Energy Strategy 2050 and EV roadmaps aim to accelerate electrification. Existing studies highlight technological, infrastructural, and behavioural challenges but lack integrated modelling of their interactions. This study applies system dynamics to examine drivers of EV adoption and policy impacts on Switzerland’s long-term mobility transition and sustainable decarbonisation pathways. This study adopts a system dynamics (SD) modelling approach, grounded in systems thinking and developed by Jay W. Forrester, to analyse policy and structural drivers of system behaviour. Implemented in Vensim DSS (v9.1.1), the method integrates qualitative causal loop diagrams with quantitative simulation. Emphasis is placed on feedback structures to uncover root causes of dynamics. The modelling process follows key stages: problem articulation, dynamic hypothesis formulation, model construction, validation, and policy evaluation. The model demonstrates strong validation and calibration performance, accurately reproducing historical vehicle trends with a 75% error reduction. Results show EV adoption is primarily driven by cost, infrastructure, performance, and environmental factors. Scenario analysis reveals that, under BAU, adoption follows a constrained S-shaped trajectory without full transition. Policy interventions mainly affect timing: subsidies accelerate uptake, infrastructure has modest effects, and marketing alone is ineffective in altering long-term system behaviour The findings show that EV transition dynamics are governed by competing reinforcing and balancing feedback loops. While policies can accelerate adoption, most interventions only shift timing rather than achieving structural change. Effective decarbonisation requires policies strong enough to alter feedback dominance by simultaneously addressing cost, infrastructure, and incumbent technologies. The results highlight threshold effects in policy impact and emphasise the need for coordinated, sustained strategies to enable a full transition used for writing improvement