Abstract for: The Just Energy Transition of the paratransit industry: A socio-economic study of South Africa

The paratransit industry, encompassing informal and semi-formal transportation modes such as minibuses, shared taxis, and jitneys, is a critical part of urban mobility in many developing countries. However, its reliance on fossil fuel-powered vehicles contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions and urban air pollution. As cities strive to transition toward greener and more sustainable transport options, electric vehicles (EVs) present a promising alternative. This research uses System Dynamics (SD) and a comprehensive Excel-Model as a hybrid approach to investigate a "just" energy transition in the paratransit sector especially relating to socio-economic impacts of the transition. Through the lens of a just transition, the research explores equitable pathways for adopting EVs, considering the diverse socioeconomic backgrounds of operators, the affordability and accessibility of EV technology, and the policy frameworks required to support a fair transition. The hybrid SD-EXCEL approach enables a nuanced understanding of both aggregate system behaviour and individual-level decision-making, providing insights that can guide policy interventions and inform stakeholders. Given the unique dynamics and decentralized nature of the paratransit industry, traditional modelling approaches may be insufficient to capture the complexity and diversity of actors and stakeholders involved. AI used to generate some diagrams