Abstract for: Revitalizing Wholesale Markets for Resilient Food Systems: A Model-Based Approach to Evaluate Strategy Interventions

Fresh Produce Wholesale Markets are key urban infrastructure for delivering accessible, affordable food, yet their contribution to food security is often underestimated, particularly in crises when they act as shock absorbers. Their long-term viability is threatened by economic pressures, evolving retail channels, shifting consumer behaviour and complex international trade, undermining trader participation and system resilience The study applies System Dynamics to the Birmingham wholesale market, one of Europe’s largest integrated FPWMs, to explore strategies for revitalisation. Physical and digital interventions were co-created with stakeholders through strategy innovation workshops, then formalised and refined via group model-building, using tenancy levels and fresh produce volumes as key indicators of value proposition and system performance. Co-created interventions include enhanced value propositions through product differentiation (such as spice markets), downstream sorting for restaurants, surplus-food processing hubs, improved waste management and dark kitchens. The resulting model incorporates a balancing loop governing trader numbers and three reinforcing loops that support trader attraction and retention, capturing dynamic responses to these strategic interventions. The work demonstrates a novel application of System Dynamics, particularly the co-flow modelling approach, to wholesale market strategy in urban food systems. The preliminary model provides a platform for scenario evaluation with traders and management, helping reveal complex interactions and potential trade-offs between demand-side initiatives and productivity-oriented interventions aimed at strengthening food system resilience. model describing, drafting, summarising, proofreading. All the content has been checked for consistency.