Abstract for: National transport decarbonization policies: A systematic literature review of system dynamics models

Decarbonizing passenger transport requires national strategies whose impacts can be evaluated before implementation. Because transport systems involve feedback loops, delays, and non-linear interactions, policy assessment remains challenging. System dynamics offers a useful framework for this purpose, but the literature applying SD to transport decarbonization policies remains fragmented and lacks an up-to-date review. This study conducts a systematic literature review of system dynamics applications to national transport decarbonization policy evaluation over the last decade. The review is structured using the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework and examines how policies are represented, which policy families dominate the literature, and what cross-cutting insights emerge for policy design and future SD research. The review identifies 79 studies covering a broad range of transport decarbonization policy instruments. Improve-oriented policies account for 63% of all policy representations, showing a strong concentration on vehicle technology, electrification, and enabling infrastructure. Avoid and Shift policies are comparatively less represented, although the evidence indicates that coordinated policy packages outperform isolated interventions in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. The findings suggest that SD applications are particularly well suited to Improve policies, which are easier to represent through technology diffusion, stock turnover, and infrastructure feedbacks. However, Improve policies alone are insufficient for deep decarbonization. Future SD research should better capture Avoid and Shift strategies, especially demand management and modal shift, to support more comprehensive national decarbonization pathways. Language editing, translation, proofreading