Abstract for: Modelling system dynamics for informing foresight studies

Foresight studies help anticipate future developments but often overlook the dynamic feedbacks shaping these developments. This project, commissioned by the Public Health Ministry, aimed to explore future scenarios for sport and physical activity by integrating system dynamics into foresight. Stakeholders participated in workshops to define key indicators and map societal trends. Together, they developed causal loop diagrams, which informed a simulation model. The model was parameterized with stakeholder input and literature, and used to simulate various future scenarios. Thousands of scenarios were generated, visualized as cones of possible outcomes for each indicator. Analysis identified which societal trends could lead to desirable or undesirable futures in sport and physical activity. Quantifying societal trends proved problematic for several reasons. First, it was challenging to represent how changes in societal trends over time affect the system within the model. Second, societal trends are actually bundles of diverse processes that do not all have the same effects or influence the same factors, making their integration into the model complex.