Abstract for: Mapping Robust Pathways For The (Bio-)PET Transition: Integrating System Dynamics, LCA, and Deep Uncertainty

In a bid to address the issue of plastic pollution, the plastics industry faces the challenge of closing the loop. Often, Life Cycle Assessment methods are used to support decision making. However, prior research has shown such models often have narrow model boundaries and lack feedback/accumulation effects, rendering their insights to be prone to error. We propose the integration of SD and EMA with Life Cycle Assessment to investigate the transition dynamics of implementing closed loop recycling and shifting demand from regular PET to bio-PET. By accounting for various end-of-life treatments and human behavior, as well as extensive sampling through the uncertainty space, this WIP aims to thoroughly explore the policy space and identify possible trade-offs that might arise when considering technological changes and shifting towards bio-based PET. Early stages of model testing reveal that, in the absence of biomass feedstock dynamics and degradation effects of PET during recycling, littering and other leakage flows are prime drivers in high pollution scenarios. These effects are stronger than switching to the bio-based alternative of PET. The current model/work is still WIP and does not yet contain all relevant structure to address the research questions at hand. However, early model testing does corroborate the need for closing the loop. Further developments (model boundary expansion) should allow us to better explore some complex trade-offs and identify low and high leverage scenarios.