Abstract for: Climate Risk in Provisioning Ecosystem Services: An Explorative Hybrid Model of Adaptive Behaviour in Clam Harvesting

Coastal aquaculture provides key provisioning ecosystem services but is increasingly exposed to climate-driven thermal risks. In the Venice Lagoon, clam harvesting involves a trade-off between growth and mortality under rising temperatures. Understanding how farmers respond to alternative thermal-risk information is critical to assess the future viability and economic sustainability of this socio-ecological system. We develop a hybrid System Dynamics–Agent-Based model integrating bioenergetic growth, temperature-dependent mortality, and heterogeneous farmer behaviour. Harvest decisions are represented through a discrete choice model combining thermal-risk signals and expected economic payoffs. Adaptive behaviour is conceptualised through reinforcement learning, and alternative thermal-information regimes are used to represent different levels of biological realism. The model is under active development, with ongoing work on behavioural calibration and the integration of adaptive learning. Feedback is sought to refine the design of the behavioural questionnaire, the specification of price dynamics and payoff structures, and the representation of learning processes. The modelling framework aims to support the exploration of adaptive harvesting strategies under climate change and farmers' willingness-to-pay for improved climate-risk information. AI was used to support language editing and text refinement