Abstract for: From Hazard to Vulnerability: A System Dynamics Perspective on Recurrent Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Poultry Production

Conventional infectious disease preparedness primarily explains outbreaks through hazard and exposure, focusing on viral characteristics and transmission pathways. While effective for outbreak control, this approach provides limited insight into why outbreaks recur with similar magnitude and distribution. Within a disaster risk reduction framework, such patterns point to systemic vulnerability as a key driver of impact. Using a qualitative analysis of scientific literature and policy documents, the study examines how drivers of vulnerability are identified, framed, or overlooked beyond conventional hazard and exposure epidemiological models. The current outbreak control approaches, that primarily target hazard and exposure, seem to leave underlying dynamic drivers of vulnerability insufficiently addressed. A theoretical hypothesis suggests that recurrent outbreaks may be sustained by reinforcing feedback loops where control measures stabilise existing system configurations rather than reduce underlying vulnerability. used for refining language.