Abstract

Abstract for: System Dynamics Model of Electric Vehicles Battery Recycling for Europe’s Circular Economy

Introduction The European transition to electric mobility is accelerating, yet the circular economy system required to recover and recycle end-of-life electric vehicle batteries is evolving far more slowly. This misalignment creates a systemic vulnerability in the Europe's industrial and environmental strategies.
Approach The study develops a System Dynamics model to investigate how policy frameworks, industrial behavior, technological progress, and material flows co-evolve over time and shape Europe’s capacity to secure secondary raw materials such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt.
Results The findings demonstrate that technological innovation alone is insufficient to achieve a circular battery economy. The study provides a decision-support framework for policymakers and industry leaders. It highlights leverage points for improving material circularity, strengthening Europe's strategic autonomy, and accelerating the sustainable transformation of electric mobility ecosystem.
Discussion Between 2033 and 2035, Europe will face acute bottlenecks as the first major wave of end-of-life batteries enters the system. Without timely expansion of collection networks, logistics systems, and processing capacities, substantial losses of recoverable materials are likely ("back door for the black masses").

Introduction	The European transition to electric mobility is accelerating, yet the circular economy system required to recover and recycle end-of-life electric vehicle batteries is evolving far more slowly. This misalignment creates a systemic vulnerability in the Europe's industrial and environmental strategies.
Approach	The study develops a System Dynamics model to investigate how policy frameworks, industrial behavior, technological progress, and material flows co-evolve over time and shape Europe’s capacity to secure secondary raw materials such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt.
Results	The findings demonstrate that technological innovation alone is insufficient to achieve a circular battery economy. The study provides a decision-support framework for policymakers and industry leaders. It highlights leverage points for improving material circularity, strengthening Europe's strategic autonomy, and accelerating the sustainable transformation of electric mobility ecosystem.
Discussion	Between 2033 and 2035, Europe will face acute bottlenecks as the first major wave of end-of-life batteries enters the system. Without timely expansion of collection networks, logistics systems, and processing capacities, substantial losses of recoverable materials are likely ("back door for the black masses").