Abstract for: Steps Towards a Generalizable Model of Urban Dynamics

Cities serve as engines of prosperity but can also become trapped in cycles of decline. Effective urban policy requires decision-making based on models with broad boundaries that capture the interconnected dynamics across demographics, labor markets, housing, business, transportation, and trade. This paper documents a system dynamics model designed to move beyond single-case applications toward a generalizable framework—a “model of a problem category” following Forrester’s dictum—that can be calibrated to diverse cities for policy analysis. We describe the model’s architecture, highlight formulations that bridge system dynamics and urban economics traditions, and situate this work within the lineage of urban dynamics modeling from Forrester to the present. The model incorporates features novel to the SD literature including utility-driven migration, multi-sector labor allocation with wage dynamics anchored to marginal productivity, consumer choice optimization, life-cycle savings, endogenous transportation, and bounded trade among others. Several simulated scenarios provide insights into dynamics at the heart of the model. This model enables scalable engagement with diverse urban communities while maintaining empirical tractability. Ongoing work is addressing data collection and estimation, expanding the model to new sectors, and scalable stakeholder engagement. AI used in editing some parts of the document, and in writing code to speed up analysis.