Abstract for: Quantifying Future Scenarios using System Dynamics - Polyolefin Market in 2035

Qualitative scenario narratives are widely used in strategic foresight, but they often lead to divergent interpretations among decision makers. This study addresses the challenge of making future scenarios more concrete and comparable by introducing a quantitative representation. Focusing on the global polyolefin market toward 2035, we explore how system dynamics can strengthen scenario-based strategic discussions. We apply a system dynamics approach to translate scenario planning outputs into a quantitative framework. Key elements such as polyolefin supply, demand, social stock, and recycling flows are identified and structured into a stock-and-flow diagram. These elements are explicitly linked to major driving forces identified through scenario analysis, enabling systematic examination of how different future conditions shape market trajectories. The preliminary model clarifies causal relationships between scenario drivers and market outcomes, such as the balance between virgin and recycled materials and the sensitivity of supply–demand dynamics to regulatory and technological shifts. The framework demonstrates how different scenarios can be expressed as distinct quantitative pathways, supporting clearer comparison across alternative futures. Quantifying scenarios using system dynamics enhances their explanatory power and helps align interpretations among stakeholders. This approach supports deeper engagement with scenarios by making assumptions explicit and testable. Future work will involve equation formulation, simulation, and feedback from scenario readers to assess how quantitative results influence strategic understanding and decision-making in complex, uncertain markets. Scenario drafting, reference model making