Abstract for: Endogenizing Governance in Pandemic Preparedness: EU Threat Assessment and Response

Epidemic models consistently treat public health governance as exogenous (i.e., a fixed policy lever) rather than an endogenous variable governed by dynamic feedback processes. This research develops a comprehensive causal loop diagram (CLD) of pandemic threat assessment and governance response in the European Union. We use evidence from three separate sources: a scoping review of 144 peer-reviewed articles, a targeted grey literature review of EU institutional documents, and 11 semi-structured expert interviews. The CLD identifies key feedback processes spanning epidemic dynamics, surveillance, governance, and societal response. A semi-quantitative salience analysis of expert transcripts reveals that governance- and risk-perception loops dominate practitioner accounts of epidemic dynamics, while behavioral awareness loops are nearly absent. The pattern inverts the emphasis of the published modeling literature. Analysis of institutional decision processes modulates the timing and strength of balancing mechanisms rather than eliminating reinforcing transmission dynamics. The CLD provides the theoretical architecture for a system dynamics simulation model that explicitly couples institutional decision processes to epidemic trajectories, offering a more realistic foundation for pandemic preparedness analysis. summarizing and polishing.