Abstract for: From Coal-Powered Growth to Green Growth: A Modelling Assessment of Jobs and Resilience in Indonesia's Net-Zero Path

Coal-reliant emerging economies face difficult trade-offs between development, fiscal stability, and climate mitigation. We assess how Indonesia can achieve net-zero emissions before 2060 while sustaining growth. Using a mixed-methods framework that integrates national policy analysis, expert elicitation, and system dynamics modeling linked with sectoral input–output projections, we compare business-as-usual, an expert-informed scenario, and an Ambitious Green Growth (AGG) scenario tailored to Indonesia’s emissions profile. We worked with local Indonesian partners to survey experts and collected data. The data were used to calibrated the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) model for Indonesia. The model is an economy-wide energy-emissions model, and includes a hybrid approach that mixes SD with an IO model. The calibration was verified by local partners. The results are being shared with decision makers and policy experts. Accelerated coal retirement, rapid renewable deployment, transport electrification, and strengthened land-use measures under the AGG scenario deliver system-wide emissions reductions, reaching net-zero by 2056. The AGG pathway also yields substantial cumulative GDP gains (about US$26 billion by 2030; US$263 billion by 2060), alongside cumulative net job creation (about 4.2 million by 2030; about 30 million by 2060), and improved fiscal balances driven by carbon revenues. Distributional impacts are uneven as clean energy infrastructure, agriculture, and electric vehicle manufacturing are emerging as major winners, while coal mining, petroleum refining, and other carbon-intensive industries experience significant contraction. This highlights the need for just transition measures. Results show that coherent, high-ambition policy packages can transform Indonesia’s net-zero pathway into a driver of inclusive growth and resilience.