Abstract for: Modeling risk propagation in dike projects using System Dynamics: a practitioner’s perspective

From a consulting and project practice perspective, this work-in-progress (WIP) explores how risk propagates through dike construction projects using a System Dynamics (SD) modelling approach. The aim is to explore whether such an approach can help practitioners better understand how interacting uncertainties influence project performance and risk impacts over time. A System Dynamics methodology is used to represent the project as a dynamic system involving risk generation, mitigation and performance impacts across different project stages. The model development process includes: 1. Identification of major risk drivers per project phase based on publicly available data 2. Construction of causal loop diagram 3. Development of a preliminary stock-and-flow structure for first three stages of a dike reinforcement project 4. Preliminary simulations and results The primary objective of the WIP is to facilitate understanding of spillover effects (across multiple project stages) of a risk occurrence in dike construction projects. The primary discussion should focus on: - what are the key feedback mechanism driving risk propagation - the minimum stock and flow diagram required to facilitate insights into project's dynamics - adequacy of "work-related stocks" units selection - direct measurement of km reinforcement completed given the difference in "work-related" units measurements