Abstract

Abstract for: Modeling risk propagation in dike projects using System Dynamics: a practitioner’s perspective

Introduction From a consulting and project practice perspective, this work-in-progress (WIP) explores how risk propagates through dike construction projects using a System Dynamics (SD) modelling approach. The aim is to explore whether such an approach can help practitioners better understand how interacting uncertainties influence project performance and risk impacts over time.
Approach A System Dynamics methodology is used to represent the project as a dynamic system involving risk generation, mitigation and performance impacts across different project stages. The model development process includes: 1. Identification of major risk drivers per project phase based on publicly available data 2. Construction of causal loop diagram 3. Development of a preliminary stock-and-flow structure for first three stages of a dike reinforcement project 4. Preliminary simulations and results
Results
Discussion The primary objective of the WIP is to facilitate understanding of spillover effects (across multiple project stages) of a risk occurrence in dike construction projects. The primary discussion should focus on: - what are the key feedback mechanism driving risk propagation - the minimum stock and flow diagram required to facilitate insights into project's dynamics - adequacy of "work-related stocks" units selection - direct measurement of km reinforcement completed given the difference in "work-related" units measurements

Introduction	From a consulting and project practice perspective, this work-in-progress (WIP) explores how risk propagates through dike construction projects using a System Dynamics (SD) modelling approach. The aim is to explore whether such an approach can help practitioners better understand how interacting uncertainties influence project performance and risk impacts over time.
Approach	A System Dynamics methodology is used to represent the project as a dynamic system involving risk generation, mitigation and performance impacts across different project stages. The model development process includes: 1. Identification of major risk drivers per project phase based on publicly available data 2. Construction of causal loop diagram 3. Development of a preliminary stock-and-flow structure for first three stages of a dike reinforcement project 4. Preliminary simulations and results
Results
Discussion	The primary objective of the WIP is to facilitate understanding of spillover effects (across multiple project stages) of a risk occurrence in dike construction projects. The primary discussion should focus on: - what are the key feedback mechanism driving risk propagation - the minimum stock and flow diagram required to facilitate insights into project's dynamics - adequacy of "work-related stocks" units selection - direct measurement of km reinforcement completed given the difference in "work-related" units measurements