Abstract for: Landfill-to-Biorefinery Transitions in Municipal Waste Systems: A System Dynamics Approach

Municipal solid waste systems face increasing pressure from growing waste generation, limited landfill capacity, and methane emissions associated with organic waste decomposition. This study develops a System Dynamics model to evaluate how waste separation policies and waste-to-energy pathways can reduce landfill dependence while enabling the recovery of energy and fuels from municipal waste streams. This study applies System Dynamics modeling to analyze transitions from landfill-based waste management toward waste-to-energy pathways. A scenario-based model implemented in Stella Architect simulates waste generation, landfill accumulation, waste separation, and alternative conversion technologies. The analysis evaluates how different policy and technology scenarios influence methane emissions, landfill utilization, and energy and fuel production over time. Results show that under baseline conditions landfill capacity is reached within the next decade, while methane emissions increase due to continued organic waste disposal. Implementing source separation policies significantly reduces landfill inflows and emissions while enabling resource recovery. Waste-to-energy pathways further expand valorization options by converting residual waste into electricity, methanol, or sustainable aviation fuel. The results highlight the importance of upstream waste separation policies as a key leverage point for enabling waste-to-energy transitions. By increasing the availability of recoverable materials and refuse-derived fuel, these policies reduce landfill dependence and support alternative energy pathways. Future research should further evaluate environmental impacts and policy design to support large-scale implementation of waste-based energy systems. Grammar check