Abstract for: Forecasting Regional Innovation Ecosystem Dynamics

In 2024, the NSF funded 10 “regional innovation engines” to spur innovation-based economic development. This funding would spur the creation of new industries through innovation. One of these, the Southwest Sustainability Innovation Engine (SWISE), was predicated on more than just the direct effects of new industries; it would promote new technologies that affect broader constraints and improve regional economic development through relieving critical constraints on regional growth. This project is developed with two core methodologies: system dynamics modeling and applied economics of innovation. Critical to addressing the problem facing SWSIE is the question of dynamics in the “valley of death,” where the incentives for the research enterprise to continue investing resources decline, but the technology's readiness is not quite sufficient for the industrial sector to adopt it. The problem of the “valley of death” in innovation and technology development is a perennial challenge to economic development and the utilization of public and investor funds. Additionally, the notion of locally inspired innovation offers an opportunity to explore innovation in depth, yielding unique insights into how and where it emerges. This project will shed insight into these systems in ways that can be applied across innovation challenges.