Abstract for: Competing Theater Strategies of Additive Complexity in the Iran War: Joint All-Domain Operations (JADO) vs. Mosaic Warfare

Many problems begin when a war starts. The problem this paper focuses on is how two untested theater strategies of additive complexity might compete with one another: mosaic warfare for Iran and Joint-All-Domain-Operations (JADO) for the United States. A case study approach developed in the first 36 hours of conflict leveraged qualitative systems thinking to develop a causal loop diagram (CLD), create five scenario forecasts as dynamic hypotheses. These were rated least likely to most likely and can be compared against actual results. The approach also replicates analysis in contested and degraded environments, a strategic risk area for future defense operations. The system model and scenarios developed in ~36 hours successfully anticipated major developments from an early stage that remain relevant three weeks in. Of the most likely scenarios, one's reference mode of barrage attacks and regional proxy attacks closely matched data obtained by time of submission. This proves at least an initial utility of the method for future analysis in contested or degraded information environments. This is the first large-scale combat operation involving the competition of mosaic warfare against JADO strategies. Although the Iran war is the first, it will not be the last. China's doctrine also embraces additive complexity and they may be studying Iranian mosaic warfare and how it is working against the US JADO. The US can also learn from this conflict to improve upon JADO theater strategies.