Abstract for: Cascading vulnerabilities and housing insecurity after disasters in Brazil

Recent disasters in Brazil have increasingly displaced vulnerable populations, triggering cascading effects that extend beyond the initial loss of housing. Existing approaches often treat disasters as isolated events, overlooking how pre-existing vulnerabilities shape long-term trajectories of housing insecurity. This study seeks to improve understanding of these dynamic processes and identify leverage points for more effective and systemic policy interventions. This study adopts a system dynamics approach, using causal loop diagrams (CLDs) to map interactions between disasters, vulnerability, and housing insecurity. The model is developed through a qualitative, grounded theory-inspired process based on a structured literature review and causal mapping techniques. Emphasis is placed on transparency and rigor by explicitly documenting causal relationships and data sources, following best practices in system dynamics research. This research contributes to understanding housing insecurity as a dynamic and path-dependent process shaped by cascading vulnerabilities. By making underlying mechanisms explicit, it provides a foundation for identifying leverage points for policy intervention. Future work will involve validating the CLD using qualitative data and developing simulation models to test policy scenarios, supporting more effective and systemic disaster response and recovery strategies.