Abstract for: Modeling of Urban Emissions: The Case of Almaty

Air pollution is one of the biggest problems of Almaty. This crisis is driven by rapid population growth and high rate of vehicle usage.In this study we try to understand how different reduction policies, such as amount of regional cars entering the city limitation, transition to EV and EURO-5, affect total amount of PM 2.5 emission in the city. We developed a model using VensimPLE which illustates interactions between population growth, vehicle stock, regional traffic inflow, emission intensity, and adoption of cleaner technologies in Almaty city in the range of 15 years. As ininitial numbers we used data from Kazakhstan’s bureau of national statistics, municipality’s reports and local companies. Using our model we made 2 scenarios. Scenario 1: If PM 2.5 emission rates remain the same and policies aren't applied. It will result into an increase by 65% in 2040 compared to 2025. Scenario 2: If emission rates are adjusted and policies are applied: It will result into an decrease by 33% in 2040 compared to 2025 Our finding highlights the importance of combined policy interventions. Changing only one factor isn't enough to have a significant impact on total amount of emissions. In future work we are going to add more detailed human-related emissions and provide a breakdown of the emission types such as Nox, SO2 . AI is slightly used in order to improve the writing language