Abstract

Abstract for: Unpacking the Dynamics of the Stagnant Adoption of Meat Alternatives in Norway

Introduction Despite growing plant-based options and policies, meat alternative adoption in Norway stagnates at ~5-10% (2020), far from health/climate goals. This SD model explores how price, taste, word of mouth and skepticism loops sustain high meat consumption, testing school lunch policies to trigger self-sustaining diffusion (2000-2050)
Approach A system dynamics model based on Bass diffusion was developed, featuring stocks such as Potential Adopter, Consider Adopting, Adopter, and Skepticism. Stella software was used for simulation. Key loops include word-of-mouth (R1), price/taste attractiveness (R2/R3), and skepticism barriers (B1). Calibrated against Norwegian data (2000-2020), it tests school lunch policies (300 vs 1000 schools/year from 2028) to 2050.
Results Under the baseline scenario, adoption plateaus around 1 million by 2050, mainly due to lingering skepticism (0.63). A cautious policy adding 300 schools per year leads to only modest growth. In contrast, a bolder strategy of 1,000 schools annually from 2028 sparks a tipping point: skepticism fades by 2035, adoption reaches 1.8 million by 2050, and word of mouth drives ongoing, self-sustaining diffusion.
Discussion The model reveals skepticism as a key barrier to plant-based adoption, becoming a "victim of success" only after aggressive policy intervention normalizes alternatives in schools. Structural policies outperform information campaigns, aligning with diffusion theory. Limitations include population homogeneity; future work should segment by age/income and endogenize meat prices for realistic policy design.

Introduction	Despite growing plant-based options and policies, meat alternative adoption in Norway stagnates at ~5-10% (2020), far from health/climate goals. This SD model explores how price, taste, word of mouth and skepticism loops sustain high meat consumption, testing school lunch policies to trigger self-sustaining diffusion (2000-2050)
Approach	A system dynamics model based on Bass diffusion was developed, featuring stocks such as Potential Adopter, Consider Adopting, Adopter, and Skepticism. Stella software was used for simulation. Key loops include word-of-mouth (R1), price/taste attractiveness (R2/R3), and skepticism barriers (B1). Calibrated against Norwegian data (2000-2020), it tests school lunch policies (300 vs 1000 schools/year from 2028) to 2050.
Results	Under the baseline scenario, adoption plateaus around 1 million by 2050, mainly due to lingering skepticism (0.63). A cautious policy adding 300 schools per year leads to only modest growth. In contrast, a bolder strategy of 1,000 schools annually from 2028 sparks a tipping point: skepticism fades by 2035, adoption reaches 1.8 million by 2050, and word of mouth drives ongoing, self-sustaining diffusion.
Discussion	The model reveals skepticism as a key barrier to plant-based adoption, becoming a "victim of success" only after aggressive policy intervention normalizes alternatives in schools. Structural policies outperform information campaigns, aligning with diffusion theory. Limitations include population homogeneity; future work should segment by age/income and endogenize meat prices for realistic policy design.