Abstract for: Exploring the dynamic interactions between heavy electric truck adoption and electricity supply and pricing

The electrification of heavy road freight is a promising pathway to decarbonise the sector, yet it depends on an electricity system that is itself transitioning to low-carbon energy. Achieving net-zero emissions requires a clear understanding of the interdependencies between transport electrification and electricity supply systems, including how demand growth and system constraints interact. To address this challenge, we developed a system dynamics (SD) model capturing interactions between freight electrification and electricity systems. Informed by literature review and expert interviews, the model integrates three modules: demand (electric truck fleet and charging behaviour), supply (generation capacity expansion with construction delays), and price (market-based merit-order dispatch). Preliminary results suggest that electric truck adoption has limited direct impact on electricity prices under baseline assumptions. However, cross-sectoral competition is significant: accelerated electrification in other sectors can increase electricity prices, reducing the competitiveness of electric trucks. Additionally, charging coordination strategies influence price dynamics and system outcomes. The model provides a holistic perspective on transport–electricity interactions and highlights the importance of coordinated planning across sectors. It underscores how broader electrification trends may shape freight decarbonisation pathways. However, as model calibration is ongoing, these findings remain preliminary and should be interpreted with caution.