Abstract for: Commercial Space Expansion under Economic Kessler Syndrome: Evaluating Orbital Sustainability-Utilization Trade-offs under a Launch Tax-ADR Policy

As large-scale satellite constellation deployment accelerates and orbital congestion risk rises, a key governance question for space sustainability is whether rapid launch growth can be managed without persistent debris accumulation. This study addresses this problem by examining how different governance settings shape long-run debris outcomes, fiscal burden, and orbital utilization under alternative future launch-growth conditions. This study develops a stylized system dynamics model that links launch-growth scenarios, the Economic Kessler Syndrome (EKS) loop, and a tax–active debris removal (ADR) policy. Three launch-growth scenarios are used to compare reference and policy cases, with results evaluated in terms of debris accumulation, expected launch demand, required tax rate, and the number of spacecraft in orbit. The simulations show that governance regime matters more than growth pressure alone in determining the long-run debris trajectory. In the reference cases, debris continues to accumulate, whereas in the policy cases it peaks early and declines across all scenarios. The results also show that strong debris reduction does not necessarily reduce long-run utilization, although fiscal burden rises sharply under stronger growth pressure. These findings suggest that orbital sustainability, fiscal burden, and utilization are jointly shaped by governance design, and clarifies the dynamic trade-offs and feedbacks that future institutional design must address. For future research, the model should be extended to include more realistic funding rules, ADR capacity constraints, and alternative target formulations. AI (LLM) was used to support language refinement of the manuscript.