Abstract for: A Causal Loop Diagram for the problem of students’ retention in the Italian Higher Education System

Student retention in Higher Education is among the major problems that admieducational authorities are addressing. Eisenberg (2009) found that students experiencing depression or anxiety were significantly more likely to drop out, even after controlling for academic performance. Psychological distress undermines concentration, reduces classroom engagement, and amplifies the effect of other stressors such as financial or familial problems. In turn, poor psychological wellbeing reinforces negative academic outcomes, creating a self-sustaining loop. What makes student retention even more complex is not simply the number of factors involved, but how these factors influence each other over time. For example, poor infrastructure increases psychological stress, which can reduce health, which in turn further degrades psychological wellbeing. These types of causal relationships are difficult to capture in linear models. Consequently, simulation and especially System Dynamics appear ideally suited to capture the dynamics of student attrition. The purpose of the paper was to investigate the factors that influence student attrition in the Italian Higher Education system and map these factors and their inter-relationships in a Causal Loop Diagram. The development of CLD followed a structured, stepwise process where five core, relevant dimensions were identified: psychological wellbeing, health, family support, financial stability, and infrastructure quality, around which the model was organized. The developed CLD provides a conceptual map of how these dimensions interact through reinforcing and balancing feedback loops to influence student retention, graduation, and dropout. Rather than predicting outcomes, the model serves as a exploratory tool, which can assist in clarifying which interactions and leverage points could be used most effectively for policy interventions with the aim of improving student persistence.