Abstract for: The Theoretic Foundation for Modelling Arms Race Stability in Outer Space

The accelerating dependency on space-based infrastructures across military, civilian, and economic sectors, combined with the rapid evolution of counterspace capabilities, creates a strategic environment marked by profound uncertainty and growing instability. This paper positions armsrace stability as a central component of strategic stability in outer space and develops a conceptual foundation for modelling arming behaviour of nations navigating this domain. By adapting the concept of arms-race stability to the space domain and examining the key drivers of arming behaviour, this study offers a structured lens through which to assess how instability arises and how it can be modelled using System Dynamics. A definition of arms-race stability tailored to the space domain is proposed, followed by an analytical assessment identifying uncertainty, vulnerability, perceptions, and national strategic motivations as the dominant forces shaping competitive dynamics. To capture these interactions, the behaviours of governments, commercial actors, and innovation processes are represented through three interconnected conceptual models. These models illuminate how feedbacks, delays, and misperceptions can accelerate instability. The paper concludes by outlining how these qualitative structures can be translated into a quantitative System Dynamics model, enabling systematic exploration of policy interventions and governance mechanisms. In doing so, it contributes to the broader effort of crafting shared, stable futures in an increasingly contested and strategically vital domain. OpenAI has been used in order to shorten and rephrase texts.