Abstract for: Modeling Production Stability in High-Tech, Multi-Variety Small Batch Manufacturing: A System Dynamics Approach

In high-tech, multi-variety, small-batch manufacturing, maintaining production stability is critical yet challenging due to complex operational dynamics. Instability often leads to delays, making it essential to understand the underlying mechanisms driving fluctuations. Using system dynamics, we developed a production stability model from a case study of a high-tech assembly workshop. Seven feedback hypotheses from interviews informed a causal loop diagram, showing how material shortages, technology immaturity, multi-project conflicts, and resource competition drive fluctuations. Four simulation scenarios combining varying technology maturity and material availability were designed to quantitatively analyze their impact on production stability and on-time delivery. The results indicate that material availability is the key driver of stable production and timely delivery. Material delays trigger a disruptive "stop-and-go" production pattern, causing severe production fluctuations (production stability standard deviation, σmax=0.9910) and potential project failures. In contrast, while technology immaturity also amplifies fluctuations (σmax=0.6996), its effects can be offset by overtime and rework. The study identifies that production stability in assembly workshop highly relate to upstream workshop’s timely delivery of material and recommends strengthening supply chain coordination and material management. Establishing contingency buffers for projects with immature technology can also help improve production stability.