Abstract for: Feedback Dynamics of Institutional Viability in U.S. Higher Education

U.S. higher education faces mounting demographic decline, intensified competition, and growing financial pressure, yet the mechanisms linking these forces to institutional outcomes remain poorly understood. The question this paper addresses is: how do interacting feedback processes connect regional demographic change to institutional demand and viability across higher-education markets? This paper develops a causal-loop framework grounded in system dynamics to explain institutional viability in regional higher-education markets. Drawing on demographic, policy, and higher-education research, it identifies key reinforcing and balancing feedback processes linking high-school graduates, applications, enrollment, finances, and competition to explain divergent institutional outcomes across regions. The analysis identifies reinforcing feedback structures linking demographic supply, applicant demand, enrollment, and institutional finances. We show that regions with high local demographic dependence experience stronger demand shocks and competitive pressures, while migration and broader recruitment markets moderate these effects elsewhere. Using the model we explain differing regional outcomes, including closures, consolidation, and institutional resilience. Our findings show how structural differences and local dependence influence universities' exposure to demographic change. A strong coupling between local supply and demand amplifies decline through reinforcing feedback, while diversified recruitment weakens these effects. Our analysis suggests that institutional strategies and policy interventions should focus on reducing dependence and strengthening adaptive capacity to sustain viability of institutions formatting, grammar and rephrasing sentences