Abstract for: Policy Scenario Analysis of a Sugarcane-Based Alcohol-to-Jet Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply Chain

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is expected to contribute to aviation decarbonization, but its expansion remains limited by feedstock constraints and high production costs. These challenges are especially relevant for emerging production pathways such as alcohol-to-jet (ATJ), where supply chain development depends on interactions among agricultural production, fuel markets, technology performance, and policy support. This study develops a system dynamics model of a sugarcane-based ATJ supply chain. The model represents upstream sugarcane production, midstream ethanol allocation and ATJ conversion, and downstream blending with fossil jet fuel, and includes environmental and techno-economic assessment. Policy scenarios were used to test strategies aimed at increasing feedstock availability and improving project economics. Results show that higher farmer adoption and improved crop yield increase ethanol availability and expand SAF production potential. However, competition between SAF and gasoline blending constrains long-term ethanol supply. Stacked economic policies reduced the SAF minimum selling price, with the feedstock subsidy producing the largest reduction, while market-based measures improved project profitability but remained sensitive to carbon price levels. The findings show the usefulness of system dynamics for capturing interactions across the SAF supply chain and evaluating policy trade-offs over time. In this case, feedstock expansion and economic incentives both affect feasibility, but their effects differ in strength and persistence. The model provides a framework to assess strategies for supporting SAF industry development under supply and market constraints. Grammar cheking