Abstract for: Modeling Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply Chain Feasibility Using System Dynamics: Insights from Lipid-Based Pathway

The aviation sector faces increasing pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining the growth of global air transport. Sustainable aviation fuel produced through the Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids pathway represents the most mature technological option. However, large-scale deployment remains constrained by feedstock availability, land-use competition, and economic competitiveness. This study applies a System Dynamics modeling framework, based on a techno-economic model currently under review, to analyze the structural behavior of lipid-based SAF supply chains. The model represents interactions among feedstock production, land allocation, farmer participation, production capacity, and economic incentives, simulating industry development across different scenarios. Simulation results show that SAF feasibility is primarily constrained by feedstock availability and economic competitiveness. Small- and medium-scale facilities are structurally feasible under the modeled conditions, whereas larger plants exceed the sustainable feedstock supply. Policy incentives reduce the minimum selling price but remain insufficient to reach parity with projected jet fuel prices. The results highlight that SAF expansion depends on the alignment of biomass supply, economic incentives, and farmer participation in feedstock production. System Dynamics modeling helps reveal structural constraints and feedback mechanisms shaping industry growth, providing insights for policy design and long-term planning of SAF supply chains in emerging markets. Grammar check