Abstract for: UK livestock farmers’ incentives and barriers for change in the transition to Net Zero

Attaining Net Zero within the UK livestock agri-food system demands attention not only to technological mitigation options for greenhouse gas emissions, but also to the socio-economic incentive structures and behavioural dynamics that shape adoption by livestock farmers and meat processors. This study investigates the feedback mechanisms influencing the adoption of greenhouse gas emission reduction practices. Using Systems Thinking and System Dynamics, the study combined a systemic literature review, participatory group-modelling workshops, and targeted surveys of UK livestock farmers and meat processors. These informed a conceptual system map, a causal loop diagram, and a quantitative stock-and-flow model linking socio-economic and biophysical dynamics, calibrated to reproduce greenhouse gas emission trends from 1990 to 2025. The model reproduced historical greenhouse gas emission reduction trends and identified key balancing loops that hinder adoption, notably climate-change scepticism, implementation costs, and perceptions of environmental impacts on the immediate versus distant environment. Reinforcing loops related to knowledge, skills, advice access, peer-to-peer support, scheme participation, resources, and environmental care promoted adoption. Scenario analysis showed that reducing scepticism and strengthening peer learning substantially accelerate emission reductions. These findings suggest that the UK livestock sector’s transition to Net Zero is conditioned as much by feedback-rich socio-economic dynamics as by the technical characteristics of mitigation options. The study shows how interventions targeting feedback structure can shift system behaviour and accelerate emission reductions. It provides a foundation for further model elaboration, including integration with complementary agent-based and statistical approaches, and for policy design informed by system-level leverage points.