Abstract for: The Energy Transition and Rural-Urban Migration Within South Africa

As South Africa decarbonises its coal-dependent energy sector, the labour-market effects of the transition are likely to be uneven across regions and skill groups, particularly in coal-dependent provinces like Mpumalanga. Yet existing studies largely treat energy transition and migration separately. This study bridges that gap by examining how coal phase-out and renewable energy expansion may reshape internal migration patterns. A Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and a Stock and Flow sub-model are employed to simulate the dynamics. The model includes the following stock variables: urban population, coal power capacity, and capacities for hydro, wind, and solar energy. The model will be calibrated with South Africa provincial data from 2001 to 2024, and the simulation will run up to 2060 account for the complete phase-out of coal. *Work in Progress* We expect the simulation results of our model to show increased urban influx into provinces like Gauteng as South Africa’s energy transition away from mainly coal accelerates. These internal migrants are expected to come mainly from rural provinces like Mpumalanga, where most fossil-fuel industries and power plants are concentrated. Increased urban influx may intensify urban externalities such as communicable diseases, road congestion, and crime, at least in the short run, as mostly urban provinces like Gauteng respond to rising migrant inflows (Glaeser, 2011). This paper offers municipal policymakers foresight on unintended energy-transition challenges to better inform local and provincial urban policy. AI has been used mainly for editing the language of text, summarising the orginal text and strengthening some hypothesis