Abstract for: The U.S. Navy Submarine Fleet: Construction and Maintenance Issues

An examination of the U.S. Navy submarine fleet and the issues of fleet size, manufacturing and maintenance. The Navy needs to maintain an active fleet of attack submarines, ballistic missile submarines, and guided missile submarines. It is close to falling short on all three types. Formulated a stock and flow system dynamics model of the three types of submarines and their industrial base, including both construction and overhaul workforces. Ran a variety of scenarios to test policies. Found at least six policies that would improve the situation. Identified six policies that would improve results of fleet size and workforces: achieving a manufacturing goal of two attack and one ballistic missile submarine per year; achieving an overhaul period of one year for attack submarines and sixteen months for ballistic missile submarines; keeping worker attrition to no more than 10 percent; raise hiring levels through 2050 for both workforces; and improve workforce experience levels with improved training. The paper suggests several options for further, more detailed, improvements in the model. One improvement would be to disaggregate the various types of attack and missile submarines, specify the number of drydocks at both construction and overhaul facilities, and create an aging chain for the two types of workforce.