Abstract for: Modelling Singapore’s Green Plan Policies on Electric Vehicle Adoption and Transport Emissions

This study assesses the role policies implemented by the Singaporean government play in promoting electric vehicle (EV) adoption to achieve ambitious long-term sustainability objectives. This report hence aims to determine whether Singapore’s current policies outlined in the Green Plan are sufficient to promote electric car adoption and attain net-zero goals. Applying a systems dynamics (SD) approach, this model captures the interactions between key subsystems, including the government, electric cars and the environment. Considering government interventions in electric car adoption and objectives outlined under the Green Plan, the impacts of current and future interventions on environmental targets are forecasted. Model behavioral validation is conducted using vehicle population data from 2015 to 2024. Results indicate that, in the short term, subsidies and direct government intervention on EVs and chargers promote adoption, however, these may create a significant financial burden. Furthermore, increased EV prevalence in Singapore has a limited impact on CO2 emissions reductions unless aligned with changes to Singapore’s long-term energy mix to reduce its grid emission factor. Results illustrate that current interventions promoting electric vehicle adoption will make substantial progress towards sustainability targets by 2050. Simulation results show that with the implementation of key Green Plan policies implemented, there is the potential for up to 1.45 million tonnes of emission savings by 2050. These emission savings could contribute up to a 20.6% drop in transport emissions and a 2.47% drop in Singapore’s total emissions.