Abstract for: System dynamics modeling of energy storage systems diffusion in grid-connected photovoltaic 2 systems in Colombia

The rapid expansion of renewable energy, particularly solar photovoltaics (PV), is reshaping electricity systems worldwide. However, the variability and intermittency of these sources challenge the stability and reliability of power grids. Energy storage systems (ESS) are increasingly recognized as a critical technology to address these challenges, enabling flexibility, arbitrage, and ancillary services while supporting higher penetration of renewable energy. Feedback mechanisms such as cost reductions through learning, adoption driven by profitability, and market responses to policy incentives. This paper develops an SD model to simulate the diffusion of ESS alongside grid-connected PV in Colombia, aiming to explore adoption trajectories, assess the role of learning curves, and evaluate the potential impact of regulatory and economic scenarios. The simulations indicate that, under business-as-usual assumptions, the Colombian market remains in an early diffusion phase by 2050. Installed capacity grows gradually as costs decline and PV penetration widens the spread between mid-day and evening prices, but trajectories remain well below the saturation of the installable potential. This behavior is consistent with international evidence showing that limited value streams and modest price volatility initially constrain storage adoption. The dynamics of the model show that the profitability-imitation feedback is the dominant mechanism in the long run. 342 Improvements in earnings accelerate imitation, which increases cumulative capacity and reinforces cost reductions via 343 learning. Retirement dynamics also become relevant toward the end of the horizon, partially offsetting new additions 344 when profitability gains are insufficient to sustain expansion.